Rapid Vienna 0-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rapid Vienna at 1.30 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 1, TSV Hartberg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Rapid Vienna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 54% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 48% | TSV Hartberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.076 / defence 1.013 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.089 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 45% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 27%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | TSV Hartberg 3.70. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 50% | TSV Hartberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 45% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.50 / TSV Hartberg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.076 / def 1.013 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.089 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 45% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (3 meetings): Rapid Vienna 1W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.08x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.53
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.61
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.12 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 18D 22L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.19 PPG from 63 outings (20W 15D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.38 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 11W 11D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.13 points per game from 31 outings (9W 8D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.35 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 18D 22L in their last 63 games (1.38 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.42 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 61%, TSV Hartberg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rapid Vienna) and 61% (TSV Hartberg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rapid Vienna's games and 58% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 61% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 0-3 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.5 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 45% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 27%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 48%, TSV Hartberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.