Rapid Vienna 0-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rapid Vienna at 1.00 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 65% and TSV Hartberg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 59% | TSV Hartberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 2.27 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.297 / defence 0.849 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.092 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.353. Rapid Vienna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Rapid Vienna games / 24 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 58% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 18%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 58% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Rapid Vienna 2.27 / TSV Hartberg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.297 / def 0.849 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.092 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 58% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.30x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.06
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.52
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
10%
9.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
2%
54.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.25 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 7D 14L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.03 PPG from 34 outings (9W 8D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.35 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.29 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 13W 7D 14L in their last 34 games (1.35 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 8D 17L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.65 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 65%, TSV Hartberg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Rapid Vienna) and 59% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Rapid Vienna's games and 53% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 59% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 0-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 2.27 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rapid Vienna fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.30 / defence 0.85 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 58% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 18%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 59%, TSV Hartberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.35 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.