Rapid Vienna 1-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host Lask Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rapid Vienna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lask Linz are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rapid Vienna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lask Linz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 68% and Lask Linz 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 57% | Lask Linz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.19 xG and Lask Linz 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.042 / defence 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 1.105 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.690. Lask Linz's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Rapid Vienna games / 36 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 24% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 50%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lask Linz 2.00. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 24% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.19 / Lask Linz 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.042 / def 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 1.105 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.690 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Lask Linz xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 24% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
24%
4.24
27%
3.75
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.98
1.79
Lask Linz xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
4%
25.49
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.79 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 14D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.38 PPG from 47 outings (16W 17D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.38 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (6W 10D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.57 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Lask Linz in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 16W 17D 14L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.52 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 61%, Lask Linz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Rapid Vienna) and 44% (Lask Linz).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rapid Vienna's games and 65% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 44% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Lask Linz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Lask Linz 1-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.19 xG and Lask Linz 1.79 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lask Linz landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Lask Linz attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 24% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 50%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Rapid Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 57%, Lask Linz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG, Lask Linz 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.