Rapid Vienna 0-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host Lask Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 1). Kick-off is Friday 15 March 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Rapid Vienna — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rapid Vienna at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Lask Linz have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lask Linz's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Rapid Vienna are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 57% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 50% | Lask Linz 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rapid Vienna surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Lask Linz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG and Lask Linz 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.094 / defence 1.025 | Lask Linz attack 0.905 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Lask Linz bring a tight defence (rating 0.777, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Rapid Vienna's projected output down. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 29%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.58 | Draw 3.05 | Lask Linz 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.14 / Lask Linz 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.094 / def 1.025 | Lask Linz attack 0.905 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lask Linz xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 39% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.05
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.08
0.94
Lask Linz xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.94 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 15D 19L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.65 PPG from 54 outings (23W 20D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.39 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 14D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.48 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 23W 20D 11L in their last 54 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.44 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 5-0 Rapid Vienna.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 3, Lask Linz have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lask Linz 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 63%, Lask Linz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rapid Vienna) and 33% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rapid Vienna's games and 59% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 33% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 70% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rapid Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG and Lask Linz 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lask Linz landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Lask Linz attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 29%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 50%, Lask Linz 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.39 PPG, Lask Linz 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.