Rapid Vienna 1-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Rapid Vienna welcome Grazer AK to Allianz Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Grazer AK — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rapid Vienna, 0 for Grazer AK and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 58% versus Grazer AK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 53% | Grazer AK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Grazer AK 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.031 / defence 0.958 | Grazer AK attack 0.631 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.382. Data: 35 Rapid Vienna games / 35 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 19%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Grazer AK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 40% | Grazer AK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.68 / Grazer AK 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.031 / def 0.958 | Grazer AK attack 0.631 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Grazer AK xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 2 Grazer AK.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 57% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK?
Record (3 meetings): Rapid Vienna 1W | Draws 2 | Grazer AK 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Grazer AK (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Grazer AK's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.14
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.51
0.84
Grazer AK xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
28.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.84 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 10D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 0.82 PPG from 45 outings (6W 19D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 13W 3D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 0.98 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 10D 16L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 6W 19D 20L in their last 45 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Grazer AK away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.91 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Rapid Vienna won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK?
From 5 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 2, Grazer AK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 8-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 41%, Grazer AK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rapid Vienna) and 54% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Rapid Vienna have failed to score in 27% of games; Grazer AK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 59% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 54% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grazer AK defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat Rapid Vienna 1-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Grazer AK 0.84 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Grazer AK attack 0.63 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 19%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Grazer AK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 53%, Grazer AK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Grazer AK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.