Rapid Vienna 1-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Stadion plays host to Rapid Vienna versus Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 7 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 4W 4D 2L at Allianz Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Rapid Vienna, 1.50 for Austria Lustenau — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.54 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.981 / defence 0.860 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.711 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.164. Data: 24 Rapid Vienna games / 2 Austria Lustenau games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 17%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Lustenau 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.54 / Austria Lustenau 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.981 / def 0.860 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.711 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Austria Lustenau xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 57% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rapid Vienna's attack rating (0.98) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.71x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
The sample (24/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
57%
1.76
26%
3.81
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.25
0.71
Austria Lustenau xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
4%
27.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.71 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Rapid Vienna have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rapid Vienna are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
Attack vs Defence
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Rapid Vienna or Austria Lustenau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Austria Lustenau in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 0-5 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rapid Vienna
3
Draws
0
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
From 4 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 1, Austria Lustenau have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Rapid Vienna 1-1 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.54 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.71 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 17%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 0%, Austria Lustenau 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rapid Vienna shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.