Rapid Vienna 2-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Allianz Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Rapid Vienna's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Austria Klagenfurt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Rapid Vienna — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 71% and Austria Klagenfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 61% | Austria Klagenfurt 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.136 / defence 1.117 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.840 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Rapid Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Rapid Vienna games / 22 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 50% | Draw 24% | Austria Klagenfurt 26%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.85. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 50% | Draw 24% | Austria Klagenfurt 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.68 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.136 / def 1.117 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.840 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Austria Klagenfurt xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 27 April 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Rapid Vienna 2 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 50% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.14x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.84x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.15
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.84
1.16
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
5%
20.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.16 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 9D 9L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.21 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.14 points per game from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.71 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
3
Draws
3
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 57%, Austria Klagenfurt 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Rapid Vienna and 64% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rapid Vienna's games and 64% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 64% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt finished level at 2-2 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.16 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 50% | Draw 24% | Austria Klagenfurt 26%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 61%, Austria Klagenfurt 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.39 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.