Rapid Vienna 1-2 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Admira Wacker make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 2W 2D 2L across 6 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Admira Wacker's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Admira Wacker have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Admira Wacker's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Rapid Vienna's 1.33 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Admira Wacker's 0.83 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Admira Wacker goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 50% versus Admira Wacker 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 50% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.77 xG and Admira Wacker 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.071 / defence 0.973 | Admira Wacker attack 0.705 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.190. Admira Wacker bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Rapid Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Rapid Vienna games / 6 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 30% | Admira Wacker 14%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Admira Wacker 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 0% | Admira Wacker 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 30% | Admira Wacker 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.77 / Admira Wacker 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.071 / def 0.973 | Admira Wacker attack 0.705 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Admira Wacker xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 2 Admira Wacker.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 57% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.07x the league average against Admira Wacker's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Admira Wacker's attack (0.70x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
57%
1.76
30%
3.38
14%
7.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.59
0.82
Admira Wacker xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
7.31
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
42.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.82 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Admira Wacker, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Admira Wacker — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Admira Wacker have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Admira Wacker's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Admira Wacker
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Admira Wacker away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 2.00 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Admira Wacker been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Admira Wacker in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rapid Vienna
0
Draws
1
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker?
From 2 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Admira Wacker 1-2 Rapid Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Rapid Vienna) and 67% (Admira Wacker) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rapid Vienna and 67% for Admira Wacker. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Rapid Vienna have failed to score in 33% of games; Admira Wacker in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Admira Wacker?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 67% of Admira Wacker's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 67% of Admira Wacker's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Admira Wacker defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker beat Rapid Vienna 1-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.77 xG and Admira Wacker 0.82 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Admira Wacker outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Admira Wacker attack 0.70 / defence 1.35, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 30% | Admira Wacker 14%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Admira Wacker win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 50%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Admira Wacker winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.