Lask Linz 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lask Linz face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Raiffeisen Arena this season.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Lask Linz's favour (2.70 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Lask Linz winning.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 52% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 51% | TSV Hartberg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.61 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.979 / defence 1.014 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.861 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 48% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 22%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | TSV Hartberg 4.55. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 50% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 48% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lask Linz 1.61 / TSV Hartberg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.979 / def 1.014 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.861 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.05
TSV Hartberg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 48% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): Lask Linz 3W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.98x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.86x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.28
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.66
1.05
TSV Hartberg xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.05 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 61 games, going 30W 14D 17L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.31 PPG from 61 outings (21W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.31 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 16W 6D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 30W 14D 17L in their last 61 games (1.70 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.80 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 47%, TSV Hartberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lask Linz) and 63% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 57% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lask Linz's matches and 63% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lask Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 8, as Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.61 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.6 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 48% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 22%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 51%, TSV Hartberg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.70 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.