Lask Linz 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lask Linz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SCR Altach make the trip to Raiffeisen Arena to face Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Lask Linz's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Lask Linz 4W, SCR Altach 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with SCR Altach winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 50% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 54% | SCR Altach 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.48 xG and SCR Altach 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.039 / defence 1.032 | SCR Altach attack 0.819 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.364. Data: 34 Lask Linz games / 34 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 30%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | SCR Altach 3.33. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lask Linz 40% | SCR Altach 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Lask Linz 1.48 / SCR Altach 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.039 / def 1.032 | SCR Altach attack 0.819 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SCR Altach xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Lask Linz 1 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 45% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lask Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Record (8 meetings): Lask Linz 4W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 2W.
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (1.04) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.82x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
45%
2.25
26%
3.87
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.63
1.15
SCR Altach xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.15 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 22W 7D 15L from 44 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 8W 16D 20L across 44 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.91 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 22W 7D 15L in their last 44 games (1.66 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 16D 20L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.86 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lask Linz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 3-0 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, SCR Altach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lask Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 50%, SCR Altach 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lask Linz) and 46% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SCR Altach in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 41% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lask Linz's recent games and 46% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out SCR Altach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.48 xG and SCR Altach 1.15 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against SCR Altach attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 54%, SCR Altach 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.