Lask Linz 1-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lask Linz at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs SCR Altach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SCR Altach make the trip to Raiffeisen Arena to face Lask Linz in Bundesliga (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Lask Linz have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Lask Linz's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

SCR Altach (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

SCR Altach's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Lask Linz's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Lask Linz, 0 for SCR Altach and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Lask Linz 0–0 SCR Altach — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 42% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 39% | SCR Altach 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.43 xG and SCR Altach 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.953 / defence 0.976 | SCR Altach attack 0.971 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.131. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 23 games and SCR Altach's last 23. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.21 | Draw 3.78 | SCR Altach 3.54. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Lask Linz 23 games, SCR Altach 23) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights