Grazer AK 0-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grazer AK face TSV Hartberg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Current Form

Grazer AK's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 3L across their last 7 home games (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

TSV Hartberg have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.40 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Grazer AK's last 7 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 86% of their games, TSV Hartberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Grazer AK, 0 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Grazer AK 1–1 TSV Hartberg — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Grazer AK — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 80% and TSV Hartberg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | TSV Hartberg 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.68 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.968 / defence 1.380 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.196. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.380 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 15 games and TSV Hartberg's last 37.

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 43% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.32 | Draw 4.07 | TSV Hartberg 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grazer AK's last 7 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 86% (last 7 home games) | TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 away games).

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