Grazer AK 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Full Analysis

Merkur Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga (matchday 6). Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Grazer AK (all games): 0W 3D 2L across their last 5 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SCR Altach have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SCR Altach have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SCR Altach are 0.60 PPG clear of Grazer AK over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Grazer AK's last 5 games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SCR Altach in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 80% and SCR Altach 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | SCR Altach 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.46 xG and SCR Altach 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.904 / defence 1.364 | SCR Altach attack 1.007 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.168. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SCR Altach's projected output up. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 5 games and SCR Altach's last 27.

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 33% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 40%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.99 | Draw 3.75 | SCR Altach 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grazer AK's last 5 games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 80% (last 5 games) | SCR Altach 60% (last 10 away games).

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