Grazer AK 0-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and Lask Linz meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK at Merkur Arena this season: 1W 3D 4L from 8 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Grazer AK register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Lask Linz in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Grazer AK, 1 for Lask Linz and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 76% and Lask Linz 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Grazer AK 65% | Lask Linz 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.888 / defence 1.389 | Lask Linz attack 1.088 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.205. Data: 17 Grazer AK games / 39 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 23% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 49%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Lask Linz 2.04. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 75% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 23% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Grazer AK 1.21 / Lask Linz 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.888 / def 1.389 | Lask Linz attack 1.088 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Lask Linz xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Lask Linz kick off?
Grazer AK vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Lask Linz?
Grazer AK 0 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Grazer AK vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Lask Linz part of?
Grazer AK vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 23% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Grazer AK and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Lask Linz?
Record (1 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and Lask Linz in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grazer AK's attack rating (0.89) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.09x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 17/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
23%
4.38
28%
3.59
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.82
Lask Linz xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
4%
27.06
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.82 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 3W 6D 8L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 6W 3D 8L from 17 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.24 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.41 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Lask Linz in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.75 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lask Linz have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
1
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Lask Linz?
From 7 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Lask Linz have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Lask Linz 3-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Grazer AK, 88% for Lask Linz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Grazer AK and 75% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Grazer AK's games and 88% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Grazer AK's matches and 75% of Lask Linz's.
Do Grazer AK and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grazer AK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Grazer AK and Lask Linz drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 1.82 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lask Linz landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.89 / defence 1.39 against Lask Linz attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 23% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 49%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 65%, Lask Linz 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 76%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.88 PPG, Lask Linz 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.