FC BW Linz 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 10 as FC BW Linz welcome Austria Vienna to Hofmann Personal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC BW Linz at 1.30 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC BW Linz, 2 for Austria Vienna and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 48% versus Austria Vienna 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 42% | Austria Vienna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and Austria Vienna 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.837 / defence 1.176 | Austria Vienna attack 0.998 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 22 FC BW Linz games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Austria Vienna 2.86. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 60% | Austria Vienna 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG FC BW Linz 1.19 / Austria Vienna 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.837 / def 1.176 | Austria Vienna attack 0.998 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Austria Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
FC BW Linz 1 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna?
Record (3 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 2W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC BW Linz's attack rating (0.84) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.28
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.38
1.19
Austria Vienna xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.19 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 11D 13L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 11W 10D 10L from 31 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC BW Linz on 1.03 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (4W 8D 3L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 11W 10D 10L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.33 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.13 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Austria Vienna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when FC BW Linz 2-3 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 53%, Austria Vienna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FC BW Linz) and 33% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 33% of games; Austria Vienna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 33% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 33% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat FC BW Linz 1-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and Austria Vienna 1.19 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 35%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 42%, Austria Vienna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.03 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.