Austria Vienna 0-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Vienna (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Austria Vienna face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 2). Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wolfsberger AC's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Wolfsberger AC have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Austria Vienna's favour (2.50 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Austria Vienna, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Wolfsberger AC — Wolfsberger AC have 1 win, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Austria Vienna 1–0 Wolfsberger AC — a Austria Vienna win.
The head-to-head data gives Austria Vienna an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 45% versus Wolfsberger AC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 48% | Wolfsberger AC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.52 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / defence 0.810 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.396 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack rating of 1.396, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 38% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.61 | Draw 3.29 | Wolfsberger AC 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 38% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.52 / Wolfsberger AC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / def 0.810 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.396 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Wolfsberger AC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 0 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 2) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 38% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.40x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.29
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.36
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.36 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 29W 14D 13L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 23W 14D 19L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.48 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 27 home games (16W 9D 2L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 7D 8L from their last 27 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.55 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 29W 14D 13L in their last 56 games (1.80 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 14D 19L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.11 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won Austria Vienna 0-4 Wolfsberger AC on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 44%, Wolfsberger AC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Austria Vienna) and 56% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 33%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 26% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 44% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Austria Vienna's matches and 56% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 78% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 0-0 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.52 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.40 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 38% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 48%, Wolfsberger AC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.80 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.