Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. TSV Hartberg's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Austria Vienna's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Austria Vienna have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
The historical record gives Austria Vienna a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 58% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 0.89 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.605 / defence 1.044 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.283 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.378. Austria Vienna's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Austria Vienna games / 33 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 15% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 57%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 6.67 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 1.75. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Austria Vienna dominate the H2H record, yet TSV Hartberg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Austria Vienna 40% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 15% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Vienna 0.89 / TSV Hartberg 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.605 / def 1.044 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.283 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.85
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Generali Arena.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 15% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 57% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Austria Vienna 7W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
15%
6.87
29%
3.47
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.74
1.85
TSV Hartberg xG
6.87
15%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
43.58
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.85 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 16W 6D 21L from 43 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 14L across 43 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.26 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 7W 3D 11L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 8W 8D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.40 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 16W 6D 21L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.14 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 43%, TSV Hartberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Austria Vienna) and 48% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 38%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 43% of games; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.