Austria Vienna 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Vienna host SCR Altach at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Vienna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Generali Arena this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Austria Vienna have won 0, SCR Altach 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–3 with SCR Altach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 67% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 56% | SCR Altach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.95 xG and SCR Altach 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.067 / defence 1.001 | SCR Altach attack 0.874 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.802. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Austria Vienna games / 35 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 31%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | SCR Altach 3.23. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 80% | SCR Altach 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Austria Vienna 1.95 / SCR Altach 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.067 / def 1.001 | SCR Altach attack 0.874 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.802 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.58
SCR Altach xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 46% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Austria Vienna and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Vienna 0W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Vienna's attack at 1.07x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
46%
2.17
23%
4.40
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
3.52
1.58
SCR Altach xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
4%
22.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.58 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 16W 17D 12L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 24L across 45 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 8W 9D 5L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 7W 3D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.93 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 16W 17D 12L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.50 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 73%, SCR Altach 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Austria Vienna and 68% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Austria Vienna's games and 41% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Austria Vienna's matches and 68% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Vienna and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out SCR Altach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat SCR Altach 2-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.95 xG and SCR Altach 1.58 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against SCR Altach attack 0.87 / defence 1.29, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 31%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 56%, SCR Altach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.