Austria Vienna 3-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Austria Klagenfurt in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Austria Vienna 1W, Austria Klagenfurt 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 65% and Austria Klagenfurt 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 54% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.961 / defence 1.018 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.160 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.456. Data: 38 Austria Vienna games / 38 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 32% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 44%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 32% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Austria Vienna 1.44 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.961 / def 1.018 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.160 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Austria Klagenfurt xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Vienna 3 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 32% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Vienna 1W | Draws 2 | Austria Klagenfurt 0W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Austria Vienna's attack at 0.96x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (1.16x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
32%
3.10
23%
4.28
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
3.16
1.72
Austria Klagenfurt xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
6%
17.31
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.72 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 17W 18D 13L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 14W 15D 19L from 48 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.19 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 8W 8D 8L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.44 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 69%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 17W 18D 13L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 14W 15D 19L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.50 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
5
Draws
1
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Austria Vienna 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Austria Vienna, 71% for Austria Klagenfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Austria Vienna and 67% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Austria Vienna's games and 71% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Austria Vienna's matches and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Austria Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Austria Klagenfurt 3-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.72 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.16 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 32% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 44%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 54%, Austria Klagenfurt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.44 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.