Austria Lustenau 1-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees WSG Wattens travel to ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz to take on Austria Lustenau. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 0D 9L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this season.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Austria Lustenau 0.80 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Austria Lustenau have won 3, WSG Wattens 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Austria Lustenau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Lustenau trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
WSG Wattens trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 46% versus WSG Wattens 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 53% | WSG Wattens 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.41 xG and WSG Wattens 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.842 / defence 1.374 | WSG Wattens attack 0.852 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Austria Lustenau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Austria Lustenau games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | WSG Wattens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Austria Lustenau 30% | WSG Wattens 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.41 / WSG Wattens 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.842 / def 1.374 | WSG Wattens attack 0.852 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.19
WSG Wattens xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 41% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
Record (6 meetings): Austria Lustenau 3W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 3W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.84x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.46
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.59
1.19
WSG Wattens xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.19 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 15D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 0.96 PPG from 55 outings (14W 11D 30L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 0.98 PPG, WSG Wattens on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 7W 5D 15L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (8W 3D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.18 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 13W 15D 27L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 14W 11D 30L in their last 55 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or WSG Wattens away?
WSG Wattens's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.96 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
4
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when WSG Wattens 0-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 48%, WSG Wattens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Austria Lustenau) and 56% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 37% of games; WSG Wattens in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 52% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 56% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat Austria Lustenau 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Austria Lustenau 1-2 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.41 xG and WSG Wattens 1.19 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.84 / defence 1.37 against WSG Wattens attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 53%, WSG Wattens 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 0.98 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.