Austria Klagenfurt 2-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wörthersee Stadion plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wörthersee Stadion, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Austria Klagenfurt, 0.70 for Wolfsberger AC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Austria Klagenfurt 1W, Wolfsberger AC 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 67% and Wolfsberger AC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 59% | Wolfsberger AC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.32 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.948 / defence 1.135 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.775 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Austria Klagenfurt games / 22 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 42% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 31%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Klagenfurt 60% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 42% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.32 / Wolfsberger AC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.948 / def 1.135 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.775 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Wolfsberger AC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Klagenfurt 2 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 42% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 1W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 1W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.95) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.78x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.66
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.09 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 8W 10D 9L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 11W 4D 12L from 27 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.37 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.41 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 4D 12L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.38 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 4-0 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
5
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 69%, Wolfsberger AC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 62% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 54% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-3 at Wörthersee Stadion, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.32 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.78 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 42% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 59%, Wolfsberger AC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.26 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.