Admira Wacker 0-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Admira Wacker at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 9 sees SCR Altach travel to BSFZ-Arena to take on Admira Wacker. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Admira Wacker — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Admira Wacker have posted 1W 2D 7L at BSFZ-Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BSFZ-Arena this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Admira Wacker at 1.40 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Admira Wacker have won 2, SCR Altach 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Admira Wacker in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

SCR Altach in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Admira Wacker 63% versus SCR Altach 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 47% | SCR Altach 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.23 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.788 / defence 1.299 | SCR Altach attack 0.614 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.239. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Admira Wacker games / 22 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 42% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 30%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | SCR Altach 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Admira Wacker at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 60% | SCR Altach 30% BTTS from recent games.

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