Stromsgodset 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2020, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 2.10 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bodo/Glimt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 71%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 58% and Bodo/Glimt 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 58% | Bodo/Glimt 92%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.32 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.769 / defence 1.378 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.358. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — the away xG of 2.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Stromsgodset games / 24 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 16% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 67%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 6.25 | Draw 5.88 | Bodo/Glimt 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 16% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 69% | xG Stromsgodset 1.32 / Bodo/Glimt 2.73 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.769 / def 1.378 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
2.73
Bodo/Glimt xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Stromsgodset 1 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 16% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 67% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.77x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 2.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
16%
6.20
17%
5.93
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
6.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
4.04
2.73
Bodo/Glimt xG
6.20
16%
Home win
5.93
17%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
7%
15.29
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
1%
94.71
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 2.73 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 9D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.71 PPG from 24 outings (21W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.71 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 3W 5D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.42 points per game from 12 outings (9W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.46 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 21W 2D 1L in their last 24 (2.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.17 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 58%, Bodo/Glimt at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Stromsgodset and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Stromsgodset's games and 83% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stromsgodset's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Stromsgodset 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stromsgodset 1-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.32 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.73 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.77 / defence 1.38 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.46 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 16% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 67%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 58%, Bodo/Glimt 92%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.