Sandefjord 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Sandefjord Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Sandefjord Arena: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Eliteserien appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 2D 0L from 7 away outings — 2.43 PPG. They are averaging 3.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 85%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 54% and Bodo/Glimt 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 62% | Bodo/Glimt 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.701 / defence 1.095 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.615 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.340. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.615 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Sandefjord games / 13 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 17% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 64%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Bodo/Glimt 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 33% | Bodo/Glimt 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 17% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Sandefjord 1.17 / Bodo/Glimt 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.701 / def 1.095 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.615 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
2.37
Bodo/Glimt xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 August 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 17% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 64% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.70x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 2.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
17%
5.76
19%
5.39
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.54
2.37
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.76
17%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
9%
10.69
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
2%
61.56
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sandefjord and 2.37 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 1D 7L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.69 PPG from 13 outings (11W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.46 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.33 points per game from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.46 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.67 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 33%, Bodo/Glimt 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sandefjord and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Sandefjord's games and 83% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.37 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.61 / defence 1.24, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 17% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 64%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 62%, Bodo/Glimt 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.