Ham-Kam 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 2W 4D 1L from 7 Eliteserien appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.50 for Bodo/Glimt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 77% and Bodo/Glimt 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 54% | Bodo/Glimt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.42 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.884 / defence 0.891 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.113 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.382. Data: 13 Ham-Kam games / 43 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 36%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 57% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Ham-Kam 1.42 / Bodo/Glimt 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.884 / def 0.891 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.113 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Bodo/Glimt xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt?
Ham-Kam 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 38% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.11x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
38%
2.61
25%
3.93
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.79
1.37
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.37 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 3W 8D 2L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 3L across 13 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.69 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 3W 0D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 3W 8D 2L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.50 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
6
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, Bodo/Glimt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 67% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ham-Kam's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Ham-Kam 0-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.42 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.37 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.88 / defence 0.89 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 36%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 54%, Bodo/Glimt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.31 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodo/Glimt win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.