Bodo/Glimt 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 28 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.33 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / defence 1.085 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.663 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.583. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 Bodo/Glimt games / 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 64% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 17%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 64% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.33 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / def 1.085 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.663 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 64% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.66x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.31
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.46
1.14
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
10%
10.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
59.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.14 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.33 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.46 / defence 1.08 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.66 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 64% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 17%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.