Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Baniyas SC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Baniyas SC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 2 for Baniyas SC and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Baniyas SC trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69% and Baniyas SC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 77% | Baniyas SC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.54 xG and Baniyas SC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.529 / defence 0.825 | Baniyas SC attack 0.697 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.692. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.529 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 48 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% | Draw 17% | Baniyas SC 12%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Baniyas SC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Baniyas SC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% | Draw 17% | Baniyas SC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 58% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.54 / Baniyas SC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.529 / def 0.825 | Baniyas SC attack 0.697 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.692 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Baniyas SC xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 71% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Record (5 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 2W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.53) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.83
12%
8.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.52
0.97
Baniyas SC xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
8.40
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
8%
12.73
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
1%
106.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.97 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 32W 10D 6L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 13W 8D 27L from 48 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.35 PPG from 23 outings (17W 3D 3L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Baniyas SC in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 32W 10D 6L in their last 48 games (2.21 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 13W 8D 27L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Baniyas SC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.35 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65%, Baniyas SC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 70% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Baniyas SC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 61% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 70% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Baniyas SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.54 xG and Baniyas SC 0.97 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.53 / defence 0.82 against Baniyas SC attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% | Draw 17% | Baniyas SC 12%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 77%, Baniyas SC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.