Khorfakkan 1-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 4W 3D 2L across 9 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.22 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 1D 1L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
Sharjah FC have collected 1.44 PPG across 9 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.67 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.44 for Sharjah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 56% versus Sharjah FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 67% | Sharjah FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.54 xG and Sharjah FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.115 / defence 0.916 | Sharjah FC attack 0.859 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.317. Sharjah FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Khorfakkan games / 9 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 47% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Sharjah FC 4.17. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 40% | Sharjah FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 47% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Khorfakkan 1.54 / Sharjah FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.115 / def 0.916 | Sharjah FC attack 0.859 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sharjah FC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Khorfakkan 1 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 47% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.78 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (0.86x) against Khorfakkan's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.44
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.58
1.04
Sharjah FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.04 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 4L across 9 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.44 for Sharjah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Sharjah FC away?
Khorfakkan's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 2.50 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
8
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Sharjah FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 25%, Sharjah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khorfakkan) and 50% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 50% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 1-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.54 xG and Sharjah FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Sharjah FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 47% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 24%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sharjah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Sharjah FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.67 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.