Khorfakkan 4-2 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 42%, yet in-form Baniyas SC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Baniyas SC at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 4W 1D 4L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Baniyas SC's 1.90 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Khorfakkan's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 0, Baniyas SC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 53% versus Baniyas SC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 68% | Baniyas SC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.26 xG and Baniyas SC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.030 / defence 1.017 | Baniyas SC attack 0.811 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.224. Data: 19 Khorfakkan games / 19 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 42% | Draw 28% | Baniyas SC 30%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Baniyas SC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baniyas SC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 33% | Baniyas SC 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 42% | Draw 28% | Baniyas SC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Khorfakkan 1.26 / Baniyas SC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.030 / def 1.017 | Baniyas SC attack 0.811 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Baniyas SC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Khorfakkan 4 - 2 Baniyas SC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 42% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
Record (1 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 1 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.53
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.27
1.01
Baniyas SC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.01 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 3D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baniyas SC sit at 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khorfakkan's home form reads 4W 1D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Baniyas SC have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 5W 3D 11L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Baniyas SC away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.44 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2025, when Khorfakkan won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
3
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 5, Baniyas SC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Baniyas SC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 33%, Baniyas SC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Khorfakkan) and 44% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games; Baniyas SC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 44% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 44% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Baniyas SC 4-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.26 xG and Baniyas SC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baniyas SC outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Baniyas SC attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 42% | Draw 28% | Baniyas SC 30%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 68%, Baniyas SC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baniyas SC arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.