Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baniyas SC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Baniyas SC at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Khorfakkan) versus 0.90 (Baniyas SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Baniyas SC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 1, Baniyas SC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 58% versus Baniyas SC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 67% | Baniyas SC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.56 xG and Baniyas SC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.888 / defence 1.164 | Baniyas SC attack 0.788 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.768. Data: 44 Khorfakkan games / 43 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 40%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Baniyas SC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Baniyas SC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Khorfakkan 1.56 / Baniyas SC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.888 / def 1.164 | Baniyas SC attack 0.788 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.768 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Baniyas SC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Khorfakkan 2 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 37% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
Record (5 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 1 | Baniyas SC 3W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
37%
2.71
24%
4.25
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.18
1.62
Baniyas SC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
7%
13.71
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.62 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 9D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baniyas SC sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (12W 7D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 0.98 PPG, Baniyas SC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khorfakkan's home form reads 9W 3D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Baniyas SC have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.26 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 12W 7D 24L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Baniyas SC away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.43 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2025, when Khorfakkan won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
3
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 5, Baniyas SC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 52%, Baniyas SC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Khorfakkan and 71% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games; Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Khorfakkan's games and 62% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Khorfakkan's matches and 71% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Baniyas SC 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.56 xG and Baniyas SC 1.62 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Baniyas SC attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 40%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Baniyas SC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 0.98 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.