Hatta SC 0-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Khorfakkan travel to Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium to take on Hatta SC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatta SC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatta SC at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium this season: 0W 1D 5L from 6 home games — 0.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Khorfakkan are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hatta SC have won 0, Khorfakkan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hatta SC trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Khorfakkan trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatta SC 50% and Khorfakkan 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatta SC 58% | Khorfakkan 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 1.09 xG and Khorfakkan 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.568 / defence 1.242 | Khorfakkan attack 0.781 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.679. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.568 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Hatta SC games / 39 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 23% | Draw 30% | Khorfakkan 47%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Khorfakkan 2.13. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Hatta SC 17% | Khorfakkan 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 23% | Draw 30% | Khorfakkan 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Hatta SC 1.09 / Khorfakkan 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.568 / def 1.242 | Khorfakkan attack 0.781 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.679 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Khorfakkan xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan?
Hatta SC 0 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 23% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hatta SC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Khorfakkan?
Record (1 meetings): Hatta SC 0W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Hatta SC and Khorfakkan in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hatta SC's attack at 0.57x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Hatta SC's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
23%
4.33
30%
3.38
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.63
Khorfakkan xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
5%
22.08
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Hatta SC and 1.63 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Hatta SC have picked up 0.42 PPG on a 1W 2D 9L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 3W 2D 7L from 12 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Khorfakkan are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatta SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatta SC have posted 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatta SC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.58 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 1W 2D 9L in their last 12 games (0.42 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatta SC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Hatta SC's home record (0.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatta SC at home: 0.17 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
0
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Khorfakkan?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Hatta SC 0-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatta SC 17%, Khorfakkan 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hatta SC) and 67% (Khorfakkan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 83% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Hatta SC's recent matches and 83% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hatta SC's matches and 67% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Hatta SC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Hatta SC 0-2 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 1.09 xG and Khorfakkan 1.63 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hatta SC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.57 / defence 1.24 against Khorfakkan attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 23% | Draw 30% | Khorfakkan 47%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 58%, Khorfakkan 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.