Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-4 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dibba Stadium plays host to Dibba Al-Fujairah versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 0.17 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home record at Dibba Stadium: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Pro League appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baniyas SC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.17 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Dibba Al-Fujairah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% versus Baniyas SC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Baniyas SC 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.27 xG and Baniyas SC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.677 / defence 1.401 | Baniyas SC attack 0.792 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.213. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 32 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 31% | Baniyas SC 36%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Baniyas SC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 67% | Baniyas SC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 31% | Baniyas SC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.27 / Baniyas SC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.677 / def 1.401 | Baniyas SC attack 0.792 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Baniyas SC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 4 Baniyas SC.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 33% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.68) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.79x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
33%
3.03
31%
3.28
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.62
1.35
Baniyas SC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.35 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have picked up 0.17 PPG on a 0W 1D 5L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baniyas SC's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Baniyas SC are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Attack vs Defence
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 0.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baniyas SC won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
1
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, Baniyas SC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Baniyas SC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%, Baniyas SC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 17% for Baniyas SC.
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 50% of games; Baniyas SC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 33% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 17% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baniyas SC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-4 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.27 xG and Baniyas SC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Baniyas SC outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.68 / defence 1.40 against Baniyas SC attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 31% | Baniyas SC 36%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%, Baniyas SC 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baniyas SC arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dibba Al-Fujairah shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.