Baniyas SC 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.20 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baniyas SC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Baniyas SC, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 54% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 56% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.13 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.856 / defence 1.231 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.216 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.413. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Baniyas SC games / 50 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 20% | Draw 20% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.13 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 60% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 20% | Draw 20% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Baniyas SC 1.13 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.856 / def 1.231 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.216 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Baniyas SC 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 20% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (3 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
20%
5.10
20%
4.88
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.25
2.12
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
5.10
20%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
12%
8.31
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
2%
42.34
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 2.12 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 12D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 1.86 PPG from 50 outings (27W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 7W 6D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (10W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.66 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 27W 12D 11L in their last 50 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.08 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 48%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Baniyas SC) and 44% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 44% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Baniyas SC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 1-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.13 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.22 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 20% | Draw 20% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.