Baniyas SC 2-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baniyas SC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Nasr make the trip to Baniyas Stadium to face Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Thursday 10 March 2022 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 1D 4L this season (9 games, 1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al Nasr have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Baniyas SC's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al Nasr's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baniyas SC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 39% versus Al Nasr 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 39% | Al Nasr 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.72 xG and Al Nasr 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.067 / defence 1.011 | Al Nasr attack 0.809 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.193. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Baniyas SC games / 18 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 54% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 21%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al Nasr 4.76. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 33% | Al Nasr 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Mar 2022, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 54% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Baniyas SC 1.72 / Al Nasr 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.067 / def 1.011 | Al Nasr attack 0.809 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Nasr xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 13:45 on Thursday 10 March 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Baniyas SC 2 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 54% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Record (1 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 0W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.81x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.94
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.70
0.98
Al Nasr xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
27.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 0.98 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Baniyas SC against 1.39 for Al Nasr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.72 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Nasr away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won 4-1 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 3, Al Nasr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al Nasr 0-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 33%, Al Nasr 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baniyas SC) and 78% (Al Nasr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 56% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Baniyas SC's matches and 78% of Al Nasr's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Al Nasr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.72 xG and Al Nasr 0.98 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Al Nasr attack 0.81 / defence 1.44, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 54% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 21%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 39%, Al Nasr 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.39 PPG, Al Nasr 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.