Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Al-Wasl FC take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai meet at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 1W 3D 1L across 5 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.20 PPG across 5 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 80% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Wasl FC 20% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 0.92 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.914 / defence 1.123 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.655 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.145. Data: 5 Al-Wasl FC games / 5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 31% | Draw 41% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 3.23 | Draw 2.44 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.70. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 80% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 31% | Draw 41% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Wasl FC 0.92 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.914 / def 1.123 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.655 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 31% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 27% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (0.66x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
41%
2.42
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
1.76
0.84
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.42
41%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 14.5 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.84 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 0L across 5 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Wasl FC heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
Have Al-Wasl FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 80%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al-Wasl FC and 20% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 40% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 20% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 0.92 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.84 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.66 / defence 0.90, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 31% | Draw 41% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 20%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Al-Wasl FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Wasl FC conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.