Al-Wasl FC 2-4 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC host Ajman at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Wasl FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Wasl FC 1.50 PPG, Ajman 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Wasl FC's 30% rate and Ajman's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Wasl FC have won 0, Ajman 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Ajman in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 48% versus Ajman 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 39% | Ajman 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.47 xG and Ajman 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.870 / defence 0.799 | Ajman attack 0.705 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.219. Ajman bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Al-Wasl FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Al-Wasl FC games / 23 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 56% | Draw 27% | Ajman 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Ajman 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 30% | Ajman 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 56% | Draw 27% | Ajman 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.47 / Ajman 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.870 / def 0.799 | Ajman attack 0.705 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Ajman xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kicked off at 15:15 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC 2 - 4 Ajman.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 56% chance of winning, Ajman a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 0W | Draws 1 | Ajman 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.76
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.69
Ajman xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
4%
24.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.69 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 8W 8D 7L from 23 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 10L across 23 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 1.39 PPG, Ajman on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 4W 5D 2L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 3W 1D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.22 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 8W 8D 7L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Ajman have gone 8W 5D 10L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Ajman away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Ajman away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Ajman in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2024, when Al-Wasl FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
4
Draws
2
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Ajman have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Wasl FC 36% BTTS, Ajman 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Al-Wasl FC) and 54% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Ajman in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 27% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 54% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ajman in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Wasl FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Wasl FC 2-4 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.47 xG and Ajman 0.69 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ajman outscored their 0.69 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.80 against Ajman attack 0.70 / defence 1.26, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 56% | Draw 27% | Ajman 17%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Ajman win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 39%, Ajman 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.39 PPG, Ajman 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.