Al Wahda FC 3-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wahda FC face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC in Pro League (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Wahda FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wahda FC 1.70 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wahda FC's games and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's (from Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al Wahda FC, 3 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2024, ended Al Wahda FC 0–1 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a Al-Ittihad Kalba win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 67% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%). Note also that Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Al Wahda FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.35 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.908 / defence 0.902 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.930 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.874 / away 1.816. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a tight defence (rating 0.795, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Wahda FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al Wahda FC's last 31 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 30.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.96 | Draw 4.03 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wahda FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al Wahda FC 1.35 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.908 / def 0.902 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.930 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.874 / away 1.816 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 25 October 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Wahda FC's last 31 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
34%
2.96
25%
4.03
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.52
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.52 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 15W 7D 8L from 30 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 13L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 7W 5D 2L from their last 14 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across their last 14 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.53 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al Wahda FC (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 9 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
2
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2026: Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 71%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al Wahda FC and 71% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wahda FC's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 79% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.35 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.52 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.93 / defence 0.80, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Wahda FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 60%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.