Al Wahda FC 3-2 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra meet at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al Wahda FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 5W 3D 1L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al Wahda FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al-Dhafra's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al-Dhafra and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 60% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 55% | Al-Dhafra 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.49 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.031 / defence 1.007 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.688 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.260. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Al Wahda FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Al Wahda FC games / 20 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Dhafra 4.55. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 56% | Al-Dhafra 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.49 / Al-Dhafra 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.031 / def 1.007 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.688 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Al-Dhafra xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 2 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 52% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.69x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.80
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.36
0.87
Al-Dhafra xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.87 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 12W 6D 2L from 20 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 10L across 20 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.00 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 12W 6D 2L in their last 20 games (2.10 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 7D 10L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 5-2 on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 56%, Al-Dhafra 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Wahda FC) and 33% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Dhafra in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 44% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al-Dhafra 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Dhafra 3-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.49 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.87 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Dhafra outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.69 / defence 1.23, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 22%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 55%, Al-Dhafra 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.