Al-Dhafra 0-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Sharjah FC travel to Al Dhafra Stadium to take on Al-Dhafra. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 August 2021, 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sharjah FC are 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al-Dhafra's 0% and Sharjah FC's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.81 xG and Sharjah FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Sharjah FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.723 / away 0.890. Data: 1 Al-Dhafra games / 1 Sharjah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 31% | Draw 34% | Sharjah FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Sharjah FC 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Al-Dhafra's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Aug 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 31% | Draw 34% | Sharjah FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.81 / Sharjah FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Sharjah FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.723 / away 0.890 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sharjah FC xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 26 August 2021 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 31% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
31%
3.20
34%
2.92
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
1.68
0.87
Sharjah FC xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 16.2 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 0.87 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
The Goals Picture
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 0%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Dhafra or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sharjah FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
6
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 0% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 0% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Dhafra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Dhafra 0-1 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.81 xG and Sharjah FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Sharjah FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 31% | Draw 34% | Sharjah FC 34%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 0%, Sharjah FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Dhafra conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.