Ajman 1-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 January 2023, 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ajman Stadium this season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Ajman) versus 2.20 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ajman, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 45% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.19 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.966 / defence 0.844 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.246 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.442. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Ajman games / 38 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 30% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 30% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Ajman 1.19 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.966 / def 0.844 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.246 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 13:15 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Ajman 1 - 3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 30% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (2 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Ajman (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajman's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
30%
3.35
25%
3.94
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.71
1.52
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
7%
15.27
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Ajman and 1.52 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 17W 7D 14L from 38 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 11L across 38 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.53 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 7W 6D 5L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.47 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 20W 7D 11L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Ajman's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.50 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Ajman or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Ajman
1
Draws
9
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ajman) and 39% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%; Ajman have failed to score in 28% of games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ajman's recent matches and 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ajman's recent games and 39% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 1-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.19 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.52 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 30% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.53 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.