Ajman 1-1 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajman and Al Urooba meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W L D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Urooba (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Pro League outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Ajman. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al Urooba (1.33 vs 0.33) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Urooba half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajman 33% | Al Urooba 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 33% | Al Urooba 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.75 xG and Al Urooba 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.191 / defence 1.040 | Al Urooba attack 0.750 / defence 1.567. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 0.894. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.567 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Ajman games / 3 Al Urooba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ajman 60% | Draw 28% | Al Urooba 12%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.67 | Draw 3.57 | Al Urooba 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Ajman (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 33% | Al Urooba 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 60% | Draw 28% | Al Urooba 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Ajman 1.75 / Al Urooba 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.191 / def 1.040 | Al Urooba attack 0.750 / def 1.567 | league avg home 0.934 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: Ajman (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Al Urooba xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al Urooba kick off?
Ajman vs Al Urooba kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Urooba?
Ajman 1 - 1 Al Urooba.
Where is Ajman vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Urooba part of?
Ajman vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 60% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 12% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ajman and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Urooba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Al Urooba in?
Ajman (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-D. Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 3.33 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ajman's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Al Urooba's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Al Urooba's attack (0.75x) against Ajman's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
60%
1.67
28%
3.54
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.44
0.70
Al Urooba xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
48.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ajman and 0.70 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ajman come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.33 scored and 3.33 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Al Urooba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Ajman or Al Urooba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Urooba in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 0-3 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ajman
1
Draws
1
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajman have won 2, Al Urooba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when Ajman 2-3 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al Urooba?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Ajman) and 33% (Al Urooba) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ajman) and 67% (Al Urooba).
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ajman have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Urooba in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ajman's recent matches and 33% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajman's recent games and 67% of Al Urooba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Al Urooba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Ajman and Al Urooba drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.75 xG and Al Urooba 0.70 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Al Urooba attack 0.75 / defence 1.57, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 60% | Draw 28% | Al Urooba 12%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 33%, Al Urooba 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Urooba's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Urooba conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.