Zorya Luhansk 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Zorya Luhansk welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Stadion Livyi Bereh. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zorya Luhansk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Zorya Luhansk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zorya Luhansk's 30% rate and Obolon'-Brovar's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zorya Luhansk, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 4–2 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zorya Luhansk trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 52% versus Obolon'-Brovar 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 56% | Obolon'-Brovar 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.42 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.948 / defence 0.945 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.689 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.285. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Zorya Luhansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Zorya Luhansk games / 25 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 50% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.76. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 50% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.42 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.948 / def 0.945 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.689 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Obolon'-Brovar xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Zorya Luhansk 0 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 50% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (1 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 1W | Draws 0 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zorya Luhansk's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.51
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.25
0.84
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.84 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 8D 10L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.84 PPG from 25 outings (4W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zorya Luhansk on 1.16 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 4W 2D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.64 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.17 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Zorya Luhansk
3
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 3-3 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Zorya Luhansk 33% BTTS, Obolon'-Brovar 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Zorya Luhansk) and 42% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 42% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 42% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zorya Luhansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk and Obolon'-Brovar finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.42 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.84 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 50% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 56%, Obolon'-Brovar 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.16 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.