Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Mynai in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Mynai this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Mynai. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Mynai than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 0.90 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Ruh Lviv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Ruh Lviv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.67 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.992 / defence 0.914 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.856 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.310. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Vorskla Poltava games / 24 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 52% | Draw 25% | Ruh Lviv 23%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Ruh Lviv 4.35. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Ruh Lviv 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 52% | Draw 25% | Ruh Lviv 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.67 / Ruh Lviv 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.992 / def 0.914 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.856 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ruh Lviv xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 52% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.97
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.70
1.02
Ruh Lviv xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
23.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.02 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 11W 6D 7L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 5W 7D 12L from 24 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.00 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.00 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
4
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 42%, Ruh Lviv 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 33% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 42% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.67 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 52% | Draw 25% | Ruh Lviv 23%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Ruh Lviv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Ruh Lviv 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Ruh Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.