Vorskla Poltava 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Lviv to Stadion Mynai. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Mynai, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Mynai. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Mynai than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Lviv have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 0.70 (Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Lviv and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lviv in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 52% versus Lviv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Lviv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.17 xG and Lviv 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.949 / defence 0.838 | Lviv attack 0.795 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.229. Data: 28 Vorskla Poltava games / 27 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 44% | Draw 30% | Lviv 26%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Lviv 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 30% | Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 44% | Draw 30% | Lviv 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.17 / Lviv 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.949 / def 0.838 | Lviv attack 0.795 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Lviv xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 44% chance of winning, Lviv a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 1 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Lviv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Lviv (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.30
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
1.99
0.82
Lviv xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.82 for Lviv, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava's recent record stands at 12W 7D 8L from 27 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 14L across 27 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vorskla Poltava have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lviv's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Lviv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Lviv have gone 5W 8D 14L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Lviv away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.85 PPG; Lviv away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Lviv in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vorskla Poltava have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when Vorskla Poltava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Lviv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Lviv 0-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 38%, Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vorskla Poltava) and 31% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lviv in 31%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 31% of games; Lviv in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 38% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 31% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Lviv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lviv in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.17 xG and Lviv 0.82 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lviv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.95 / defence 0.84 against Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 44% | Draw 30% | Lviv 26%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Lviv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lviv's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.