Vorskla Poltava 2-2 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Desna travel to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo to take on Vorskla Poltava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 outings — a 1.83 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 0.83 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo than their overall form suggests.
Desna — All Games: 4W 0D 2L from 6 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.67. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Desna have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vorskla Poltava 1.83 PPG, Desna 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Desna trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Desna 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 33% | Desna 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.92 xG and Desna 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.288 / defence 1.051 | Desna attack 0.798 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.206. Vorskla Poltava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Desna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Vorskla Poltava games / 6 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 57% | Draw 25% | Desna 18%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Desna 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Vorskla Poltava (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 50% | Desna 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 57% | Draw 25% | Desna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.92 / Desna 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.288 / def 1.051 | Desna attack 0.798 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Desna xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Desna kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Desna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Desna?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 2 Desna.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Desna part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Desna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 57% chance of winning, Desna a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Desna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Desna in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Desna (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.29x the league average against Desna's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Desna's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.07
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.93
1.01
Desna xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
3%
37.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.01 for Desna, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Desna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Desna sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Desna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.83 PPG, Desna on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Desna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Desna in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Desna have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Have Vorskla Poltava or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
0
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Desna?
From 1 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, Desna have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Vorskla Poltava 2-2 Desna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Desna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, Desna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Vorskla Poltava) and 83% (Desna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Desna in 33%; Desna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 33% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 83% of Desna's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Desna tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Desna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava and Desna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Desna finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.92 xG and Desna 1.01 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Desna outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.29 / defence 1.05 against Desna attack 0.80 / defence 1.26, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 57% | Draw 25% | Desna 18%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 33%, Desna 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Desna's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.83 PPG, Desna 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.