Vorskla Poltava 2-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Mynai to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Mynai this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Mynai. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Mynai than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 0.80 for Chornomorets. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vorskla Poltava 0W, Chornomorets 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 52% versus Chornomorets 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 48% | Chornomorets 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.99 xG and Chornomorets 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.916 / defence 0.924 | Chornomorets attack 0.884 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.303. Data: 23 Vorskla Poltava games / 23 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 37%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Chornomorets 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chornomorets are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Chornomorets 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.99 / Chornomorets 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.916 / def 0.924 | Chornomorets attack 0.884 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Chornomorets xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.92) and Chornomorets's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.88x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.30
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.06
1.06
Chornomorets xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.06 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 10W 7D 6L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chornomorets's form line: 3W 7D 13L from 23 games, 0.70 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets in 61%.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 7D 13L in their last 23 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Chornomorets away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.80 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 5, Chornomorets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 40%, Chornomorets 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Vorskla Poltava and 80% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 30% of games; Chornomorets in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 60% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 80% of Chornomorets's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Chornomorets 2-1 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.99 xG and Chornomorets 1.06 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Chornomorets attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 37%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 48%, Chornomorets 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.