Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Veres Rivne welcome Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne at Avanhard this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Veres Rivne's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Veres Rivne, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 32% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.06 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.956 / defence 1.177 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.245 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.082. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Veres Rivne games / 34 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 24% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 48%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.08. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Veres Rivne dominate the H2H record, yet Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Veres Rivne 40% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 24% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Veres Rivne 1.06 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.956 / def 1.177 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.245 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Avanhard.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 24% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (5 meetings): Veres Rivne 2W | Draws 3 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.96) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
24%
4.23
29%
3.49
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.65
1.59
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.65
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.59 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 11D 15L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form line: 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.03 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Veres Rivne have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 5W 4D 7L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.00 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
3
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 5 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 38%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Veres Rivne) and 56% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 31%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 44% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 38% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 56% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.