Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Veres Rivne and Chornomorets meet at Stadion Kolos in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Kolos: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Premier League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Kolos. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Kolos than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's away record: 1W 2D 5L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Veres Rivne lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Veres Rivne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 22% versus Chornomorets 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 33% | Chornomorets 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.25 xG and Chornomorets 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.885 / defence 1.059 | Chornomorets attack 0.818 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.223. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Veres Rivne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Veres Rivne games / 18 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 41% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 31%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Chornomorets 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 22% | Chornomorets 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 41% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Veres Rivne 1.25 / Chornomorets 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.885 / def 1.059 | Chornomorets attack 0.818 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Chornomorets xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadion Kolos.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets part of?
Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 41% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Veres Rivne and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 1W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.89) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.82x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.56
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.31
1.06
Chornomorets xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.06 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 10L across 18 games — 0.78 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.11 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; Chornomorets in 61%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Chornomorets away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.88 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 5, Chornomorets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Veres Rivne 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 25%, Chornomorets 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Veres Rivne) and 88% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Chornomorets in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 62% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 88% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne and Chornomorets finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.25 xG and Chornomorets 1.06 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 41% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 31%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 33%, Chornomorets 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.