Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Ruh Lviv.

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Analysis

Ruh Lviv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Shakhtar Donetsk have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Ruh Lviv managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

The historical record gives Shakhtar Donetsk a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 51% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 58% | Ruh Lviv 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.07 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.893 / defence 0.915 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.905 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.031. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.893 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 43 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Draw 22% | Ruh Lviv 13%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Ruh Lviv 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Ruh Lviv 50%.

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