Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shakhtar Donetsk face Ruh Lviv.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Ruh Lviv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Shakhtar Donetsk's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Ruh Lviv (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record in our data favours Shakhtar Donetsk, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Ruh Lviv — Ruh Lviv have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 Ruh Lviv — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Shakhtar Donetsk an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 60% | Ruh Lviv 40%). Note also that Ruh Lviv surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Shakhtar Donetsk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.49 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.577 / defence 0.939 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.171 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.296. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.577 — their 1.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 50 games and Ruh Lviv's last 52.

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 39% | Draw 25% | Ruh Lviv 36%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.57 | Draw 4.05 | Ruh Lviv 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights